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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."